Grand Prairie, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

689
FXUS64 KFWD 221828
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
128 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms are expected across much of North Texas and portions of
  Central Texas through late this evening. Some storms could
  become severe. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
  threats.

- Following seasonably hot and humid days on Friday and Saturday,
  more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected along a
  cold front from Sunday evening into Monday.

- Below normal temperatures are expected through most of next
  week with continued low rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1245 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025/
/Through Friday/

A cluster of elevated thunderstorms developed across southern
Oklahoma this morning. This activity has generally remained north
of the Red River, but it will continue to slowly move south this
afternoon, entering North Texas near or just after 1 pm. Its
outflow boundary is currently just south of the Red River in close
proximity to a warm front. Any lingering inhibition is expected
to erode very soon, with an axis of 3000-4000+ J/kg of CAPE
setting up across North Texas. This amalgamation will result in
additional storm development along the Red River over the next
hour or two, continuing through the afternoon. Discrete
supercells will initially be favored, but as we have already seen
with this morning`s activity, these storms will likely evolve into
clusters of storms rather quickly as they move south/southeast
through the afternoon and into the evening.

Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards, with
any discrete storms expected to have the highest hail threat.
The strongest storms will be capable of producing very large hail
(>2"). Low level shear isn`t particularly favorable for a tornado
threat, but there will at least be a low potential for an
isolated tornado across North Texas, especially for any storms
that are able to react with any boundaries.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for much of North Texas.
However, expect an eventual expansion of this watch further west
and south sometime this afternoon. Storm timing remains a bit
uncertain as this morning`s activity has not been resolved by hi-
res guidance, but in a general sense, storms are expected in North
Texas this afternoon through early evening, with any lingering
storms or clusters of storms moving through Central Texas this
evening into the overnight hours. Given the uncertainty in storm
timing, it would be a good idea to start keeping an eye on the
weather (if you haven`t already) in the event these storms
develop/arrive earlier than expected.

All storms should come to an end late tonight. Hot and humid
weather is expected on Friday with high temperatures in the 80s to
mid 90s and heat index values mostly in the mid to upper 90s.
While an unstable airmass will remain in place, a stout cap will
keep a lid on any thunderstorm development throughout the day.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Night Onward/

Warm and humid weather will continue into the first half of
Memorial Day weekend, with highs in the 90s. Quite a few locations
will see heat index values top 100 degrees, but fortunately,
we`ll remain comfortably below Heat Advisory criteria. Rain-free
weather will prevail, but there is a low (20% chance) a complex
of storms to our north will clip areas near and immediately along
the Red River Saturday night.

Chances for showers and storms will return on Sunday as a cold
front approaches the area and will continue into Monday. Deep
layer shear won`t be particularly favorable for organized severe
storms, but we can`t entirely rule out a few strong to severe
storms capable of producing hail and gusty winds. An increased
threat for flooding will likely be the main threat with these
rounds of storms, especially Sunday night into Monday morning.
Ensure you monitor the forecast over the next few days for the
latest information.

The front will move through the region on Monday but will likely
stall somewhere across the forecast area. This will set the stage
for daily chances for showers and storms throughout the week as a
series of upper level disturbances move overhead. Cooler
temperatures are expected for much of next week, with high
temperatures in the 70s to low 80s on a daily basis.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1245 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025/
/18Z TAFs/

Storms near the Red River will continue moving south this
afternoon, with additional development expected across much of
North Texas. This activity is expected to arrive in D10 airspace
around 20-21Z, with -TSRA most likely at the TAF sites between
22-02Z. For KACT, VCTS timing will be a bit later and is currently
advertised from 04-07Z. There is still a bit of uncertainty with
this timing and whether any storms will impact the terminal
directly. However, we will continue to assess this potential
through the afternoon.

We`ll also have to monitor the potential for an outflow boundary
to bring a brief north/northeast wind shift. Have this advertised
later this evening (overnight for KACT), but timing may need to be
adjusted if any of the activity this afternoon produces an outflow
boundary earlier than anticipated. Otherwise, VFR and south to
southeast winds will continue through the period with wind speeds
between 10-15 knots or less.

Barnes

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested in North Texas this
afternoon and evening. Even if activation is not locally
requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National
Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  91  74  93  75 /  50   5  10   0   5
Waco                71  92  72  94  74 /  40   0   0   0   5
Paris               65  86  71  88  73 /  10  10  20   5   5
Denton              64  90  71  93  72 /  40  10  10   0  10
McKinney            66  89  72  91  74 /  30   5  10   0   5
Dallas              70  92  74  93  76 /  40   5  10   0   5
Terrell             67  89  72  91  74 /  40   5   5   0   5
Corsicana           71  91  74  93  76 /  40   0   5   0   0
Temple              70  93  72  95  74 /  40   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       65  93  71  96  73 /  50   5  10   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
TXZ091>095-101>107.

&&

$$